ASEAN leaders have adopted a bold Kuala Lumpur Declaration ASEAN 2045 vision for a united, resilient, and people-centred region, but analysts warn that deepening internal divisions—especially the Myanmar crisis—and the rise of transnational crime threaten to derail those ambitions.
Prime Minister Hun Manet and fellow ASEAN leaders on Monday signed the Kuala Lumpur Declaration themed Our Shared Future, adopting a long-term vision built on four strategic pillars — political-security, economic, socio-cultural, and connectivity.
The declaration, signed during the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia on May 26–27, sets out a bold ambition for a resilient, innovative, and people-centred regional bloc. The summit, themed “Inclusivity and Sustainability”, also marked Myanmar’s controversial return to the gathering, represented by a senior official after a long absence.
Malaysian Prime Minister and ASEAN Chair Anwar Ibrahim described the declaration as a shared resolve to deepen regional integration, uphold equitable prosperity, and build a united future in the face of global challenges.
“I emphasised that this declaration represents a shared resolve to deepen regional integration, uphold equitable prosperity and build a future ASEAN that is more united, resilient, and people-centered,” Anwar said.
A key highlight of the vision is its ambitious agenda for regional peace and security. It highlights the need to tackle both traditional and non-traditional threats, including terrorism, human trafficking, cybercrime, and online scams, through coordinated regional action.
However, analysts are skeptical that such goals can be fully realized by 2045, pointing to persistent and deep-rooted security challenges across the region.
“ASEAN is currently facing not only non-traditional security issues, but also traditional ones,” said Seng Vanly, an Asia-Pacific geopolitical analyst. “The Myanmar crisis is still a major headache that could derail the bloc’s vision for a shared future.”
Vanly noted that despite ASEAN’s economic integration success, the internal conflict in Myanmar continues to divide the bloc, undermining efforts to forge a united and peaceful ASEAN.
While Myanmar’s reappearance at the summit raised eyebrows, Vanly welcomed it as a step toward regional dialogue. He stressed that ASEAN must first establish a united position toward Myanmar’s military regime before engaging major powers like the US, China, and Russia in support of a political resolution.
“Resolving the Myanmar issue is complicated, but first, ASEAN must have a common position in facilitating the junta regime so that Myanmar can come to ASEAN to discuss a solution,” he said.
However, Political commentator Ro Vannak warned that allowing junta representatives to participate in ASEAN events undermines the bloc’s credibility.
“It sends a message that ASEAN tolerates non-compliance,” he said. “It damages ASEAN’s moral standing, especially with democratic partners.”
Nonetheless, he acknowledged that engagement could also open space for humanitarian aid and political dialogue—if ASEAN and the junta demonstrate genuine commitment to resolving the conflict.
Despite these aspirations, both analysts emphasized that the ASEAN 2045 vision will remain difficult to realize without resolving underlying issues.
In a press conference at the end of the summit, Anwar stated that Malaysia had achieved its objectives at the ASEAN Summit. He also noted the progress on the Myanmar issue, highlighting a consensus among ASEAN members to continue engagement.
“We have gone to a stage where both parties are now in consultation. Although at a lower key level, and to just focus on prolonging the ceasefire, and then humanitarian assistance, and proceeding with the initial discussion,” he said. However, he emphasized that any dialogue must remain within the broad parameters of the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus.
Meanwhile, Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn praised Malaysia’s leadership on the Myanmar crisis and backed the ASEAN Chair’s Special Envoy in advancing the Five-Point Consensus, noting that political dialogue could both enable humanitarian aid and pave the way for long-term reconciliation.
Sokhonn also highlighted the urgency of tackling cross-border crimes at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on Sunday, calling for stronger legal frameworks and advanced technological capabilities to combat drug trafficking, online scams, and human trafficking.
Meanwhile, Vannak highlighted another major challenge confronting ASEAN, which is the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea. In a recent Facebook post, Anwar shared that during the summit, he met with China’s Premier Li Qiang to strengthen strategic cooperation, especially in the context of the upcoming ASEAN-GCC-China Summit in Kuala Lumpur.
The two leaders discussed the South China Sea disputes, affirming that their collaboration at fostering regional economic growth and mutual benefits for Malaysia, China, and ASEAN as a whole.
Analysts, however, said that while ASEAN grapples with traditional security challenges, it is also increasingly confronted by non-traditional threats. The growing prevalence of cybercrime and scam networks across Southeast Asia further threatens the bloc’s ability to uphold its regional security commitments.
United Nations human rights experts have warned of a growing humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands of people trafficked into online scam operations across the region, particularly in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
On the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit 2025, Hun Manet and Anwar Ibrahim discussed strengthening bilateral ties, with a focus on advancing mutual benefits and shared prosperity but no further details were shared.
Vannak echoed Vanly’s concerns, warning that regional criminal networks have become “more powerful than some state authorities”.
“Regional diversity in governance systems, political regimes, and legal frameworks hinders cohesive action,” Vannak said. “But if ASEAN can strengthen institutions like the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime (AMMTC) and ACTIP, progress is possible.”
Both Vanly and Vannak stressed that the lack of political will among some ASEAN members has allowed criminal activity—including scamming, money laundering, and trafficking—to flourish. Countries like Cambodia, they said, must act decisively if ASEAN’s security and development goals are to be met.
“Some countries are used as operational hubs for these crimes,” Vanly said. “Without stronger cooperation and enforcement, ASEAN will struggle to create a secure and integrated community.”
